The landscape of the NBA Rookie of the Year award has seen its fair share of predictable patterns and remarkable outliers. The most common trajectory to the accolade usually involves high-scoring rookies, often those picked at or near the top of the draft. Yet, the current 2024 draft class brings a refreshing—and challenging—twist to this tradition.
The Prototypical Path to Rookie Glory
A glance at recent history indicates that half of the last 10 Rookie of the Year winners have topped rookie scoring charts. This straightforward metric of productivity has often been the golden rule. Additionally, it is worth noting that half of the past 16 recipients of the award were No. 1 overall picks, solidifying the notion that pedigree and scoring ability have a magnetic pull on Rookie of the Year voters.
Even for those not selected first, being picked within the top five significantly boosts a player's chances. Notable exceptions like Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon, who won despite being outside the top five, underscore the rarity of their achievements.
Big Men and the Award
Historically, the award has been less kind to big men. Since 2003, only Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Victor Wembanyama have broken through. This scarcity highlights the league's preference for guard and wing players who can light up the scoreboard and dominate highlight reels.
This year's (2024) draft class is intriguing in its deviation from the norm. Hailed as one of the least promising classes in recent memory, it presents a less clear-cut race for rookie honors. The top two picks are considered projects and, importantly, do not play guard—introducing an unusual uncertainty about their immediate impact.
Key Contenders from the 2024 Draft
The highest-picked guard, Reed Sheppard, may find his path to prominence fraught with hurdles, especially within a competitive Houston backcourt. His shooting capabilities are expected to be crucial: "They badly need his shooting," observed a league insider. However, stiff competition for minutes could hamper his bid.
Stephon Castle and Ron Holland, couple of other rookies, have their own considerable barriers. Castle’s 26.7% accuracy from beyond the arc at UConn and Holland’s 23.9% 3-point performance in the G-League do little to inspire confidence in their scoring efficiency.
Then there's Alex Sarr, who shot a concerning 19.1% from the floor at Summer League. An anonymous coach commented, "Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up," underscoring another layer of difficulty faced by some of this year's rookies.
Potential Breakouts and Established Obstacles
In Memphis, Zach Edey seems relatively certain to secure a starting role for the Grizzlies. Modeling his game on Jonas Valanciunas, Edey could offer a compelling combination of size and skill that attracts Rookie of the Year voters.
Another rookie, Rob Dillingham, is eyed as a potential future replacement for veteran Mike Conley in Minnesota, hinting at long-term rather than immediate impact. Similarly, Donovan Clingan in Portland faces a tough climb, positioned behind Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III in the team’s rotation.
The situation is no less complex for rookies like Zaccharie Risacher, who is competing with the likes of Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels for playing time on Trae Young’s team. Isaiah Collier has to navigate past established guards Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson. For Dalton Knecht on the Lakers, opportunities are constrained by the presence of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell.
Beyond the Lottery Picks
Last season saw players like Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. garner some rookie votes but fail to mount serious challenges for the top honor. Their experiences parallel the uncertain journey facing many of the 2024 rookies—capable of flashes of brilliance but hindered by circumstances and stronger competition.
As the new NBA season unfolds, the race for Rookie of the Year appears to be wide open, eschewing the typical script that heavily favors high-scoring, high-pedigree guards. Whether an unconventional candidate like a project big man or a lower-picked gem emerges victorious, this year's contest promises to be as unpredictable as it is compelling.